🔗 Share this article

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.